Stock futures are barely budging as investors brace for key inflation data that could shape the Federal Reserve’s next move on rates.
Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up by 3 points, a fractional 0.01% rise, while S&P and Nasdaq 100 futures hovered just above flat.
In the prior session, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite posted small gains, with the Dow ending roughly flat. The Nasdaq, buoyed by a 3.4% jump in Meta and a 2.1% gain in Nvidia, logged its eighth positive session in nine trading days.
Traders are watching a slate of economic indicators as the November payrolls report is slated for release after the Fed’s December 10 meeting.
Earlier, Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that November job cuts pushed past the 1 million mark for the year, citing factors like corporate restructuring, artificial intelligence initiatives, and tariffs. Thursday’s weekly jobless claims data — showing unemployment applications at their lowest level since September 2022 — did not derail market optimism.
Many expect softer labor conditions to nudge the Fed toward a quarter-percentage-point rate cut at the next meeting. The CME FedWatch tool put odds at about 87% for a cut next Wednesday, a sharp rise from just a few weeks ago.
According to Sonali Basak, chief investment strategist at iCapital, inflation remains “sticky,” and the data are sending mixed signals. She noted that 2026 could be a wild card for inflation, and that the labor market has generally held up with a pattern of limited hiring and limited firing. If that balance tips, she warned, the situation could become sticky next year.
Friday will bring a new batch of data, including delayed September consumer spending and income figures, the personal consumption expenditures index (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge), and the first PCE release after the record-setting government shutdown. The University of Michigan will also publish its December consumer sentiment survey.
Through the week, the market has managed small gains: the S&P 500 up about 0.1%, and the Nasdaq and Dow up roughly 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively.
After-hours movers: Ulta Beauty, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, and SoFi Technologies highlighted headlines in Thursday trading. Ulta rose close to 6% after beating Q3 expectations and guiding to a higher full-year revenue range of $12.3 billion and stronger same-store sales growth of 4.4%–4.7%. HPE, meanwhile, fell about 8% after missing Q4 revenue forecasts though its quarterly earnings topped expectations. SoFi dipped more than 5% following news of an underwritten public stock offering of $1.5 billion.
For the full details, see the after-hours coverage linked in the original report.
— Pia Singh
