College Football Playoff rankings predictions: Will JMU be ranked? Lane Kiffin impact?
The Athletic offers live coverage of the latest release of the 2025 College Football Playoff rankings. (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/live-blogs/college-football-playoff-rankings-live-updates-week-14-predictions-results/oezsj4NIhYVZ/)
What will the College Football Playoff selection committee's penultimate Top 25 look like Tuesday night?
As we approach selection day on Sunday, I'm here to predict the committee's decisions using my projections model (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6560541/2025/12/01/college-football-playoff-bracket-projections-odds/). The rankings remained stable last week, but this week's update will consider Texas A&M's loss to Texas and provide clarity on the bubble debate, ACC chaos, and the committee's view of Ole Miss after Lane Kiffin's departure to LSU (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6852892/2025/12/01/lane-kiffin-lsu-introduction-ole-miss/).
Projected CFP Top 25 after Week 14
Rank
Team
Record
SOR
SOS
1
Ohio State
12-0
1
60
2
Indiana
12-0
3
51
3
Georgia
11-1
4
19
4
Texas Tech
11-1
8
54
5
Oregon
11-1
7
39
6
Ole Miss
11-1
5
32
7
Texas A&M
11-1
2
15
8
Oklahoma
10-2
9
14
9
Notre Dame
10-2
13
47
10
Alabama
10-2
10
13
11
BYU
11-1
6
38
12
Miami
10-2
12
37
13
Texas
9-3
23
4
14
Vanderbilt
10-2
11
16
15
Utah
10-2
14
49
16
USC
9-3
17
28
17
Virginia
10-2
16
81
18
Michigan
9-3
19
26
19
Arizona
9-3
20
52
20
North Texas
11-1
24
115
21
Tulane
10-2
15
76
22
Georgia Tech
9-3
21
61
23
James Madison
11-1
25
121
24
Tennessee
8-4
37
23
25
Iowa
8-4
34
29
Next five: Navy, Missouri, Houston, South Florida, Washington
Strength of record and strength of schedule rankings are based on The Athletic's model
Biggest questions: Will Ole Miss drop? Where will JMU and Duke be?
Ole Miss, ranked 7th last week, might face a penalty after losing Lane Kiffin. Could the committee penalize them for losing their head coach?
I don't think so. Ole Miss, 11-1, is ranked higher than a 10-2 Oklahoma team they beat head-to-head. They won't drop out of the at-large spots. Dropping them due to a coaching change would be unprecedented, similar to Florida State's fall behind Alabama in 2023 after losing quarterback Jordan Travis. However, the field had only four teams then, making it hard to factor this variable into our model.
My projections don't reflect any drop for Ole Miss. They move ahead of Texas A&M in my model. While they might decline without Kiffin, the committee hasn't seen them without him yet, making it a projection. I don't expect a significant impact on their ranking.
The other question is whether we'll get an answer on Tuesday.
The ACC isn't guaranteed a Playoff spot, as the selection process picks the five highest-ranked conference champions. There are no conference tie-ins. Duke and Virginia play in the ACC Championship Game this weekend, with a possible spot on the line. If Virginia wins, it's in. But what if Duke wins? Duke is 7-5 and hasn't been close to the Top 25 this year, making it unprecedented. I have no data on how the committee views teams outside the Top 25.
James Madison, 11-1, could become the fifth-highest-ranked champion if it wins the Sun Belt, but it hasn't been ranked. My model ranks them highly, but we might not see either team ranked. If James Madison is ranked, it doesn't mean a Top 25 victory over Virginia won't push Duke past JMU, which plays Troy.
One final question: I considered the Notre Dame vs. Miami debate but concluded that Miami won't be close enough to Notre Dame this week for head-to-head consideration. My projections give Notre Dame a 95% chance of making the field, with Miami at 1%.
The 12-team bracket, based on projected selection committee rankings for Dec. 2, is available here (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6560541/2025/11/23/college-football-playoff-bracket-projections-odds/).
