In a striking revelation, recent polling data underscores the significant impact of the Bondi attacks on Anthony Albanese’s approval ratings, raising questions about his leadership amidst shifting public sentiment. Two separate polls, Newspoll for The Australian and Resolve Strategic for Nine Newspapers, provide a glimpse into the current political landscape as we begin a new year.
Newspoll reveals that Labor holds a commanding two-party lead at 55-45, though this is a notable decrease from the previous 58-42 recorded back in mid-November. However, the most eye-catching development is One Nation surpassing the Coalition in primary votes for the first time. In these latest figures, Labor's support has dipped by four points to 32%, while the Coalition has fallen three points to 21%. In contrast, One Nation has surged up by seven points to 22%, and the Greens have seen a slight decline, down one point to 12%. Moreover, Albanese’s approval rating has slipped five points to 42%, with disapproval climbing by six points to 53%. Sussan Ley, meanwhile, has improved her standing, gaining two points in approval to reach 28% and experiencing a modest increase in disapproval to 56%. Albanese's lead over Ley as preferred prime minister has also narrowed, dropping from 54-27 to 51-31. This poll surveyed 1,224 participants, though detailed results regarding specific questions on leadership traits are still awaited, likely gathered during a week from Monday to Friday.
On the other hand, Resolve Strategic indicates a decrease in Labor’s two-party lead to 52-48, down from 54-46 immediately following the Bondi shootings. In terms of primary votes, Labor has fallen two points to 30%, while the Coalition remains unchanged at 28%. One Nation has gained two points, now standing at 18%, and the Greens have dropped two points to 10%. Albanese's approval ratings have taken another hit, falling five points to 35% and seeing disapproval rise to 56%, reflecting a troubling trend from the last poll which noted an eight-point drop in approval. His lead as preferred prime minister has dramatically decreased from 41-26 to a much closer 33-29. Sussan Ley's approval rating has dipped one point to 35%, yet her disapproval has risen to 42%. Interestingly, Ley received a positive response to her handling of the Bondi attack, with 53% of respondents rating her response as good, compared to only 32% who found Albanese’s response satisfactory. This poll was conducted with a sample size of 1,800, also during the week from Monday to Friday.
William Bowe, a seasoned election analyst and part-time political science educator based in Perth, runs The Poll Bludger, a well-respected blog dedicated to Australian politics since 2004, attracting a large audience interested in political analysis and insights.
As these polls illustrate, the political dynamics are shifting, and it raises an important question: How will these changes influence the upcoming elections? Are voters moving towards alternative parties like One Nation due to dissatisfaction with the major parties? We’d love to hear your thoughts on these developments—do you agree with the polling trends or see them differently?
